# How do I trade around scheduled economic releases?

Stage 5 · Weatherproof it (conditions and volatility) · Updated 2026-10-17

Scheduled releases like US inflation, jobs figures and Fed decisions arrive at a known minute, and prices can move further in that minute than in the hour before it. Spreads tend to widen, the book thins, and stops can fill past their price. The choices are yours: be flat before the release, trade smaller through it, or wait until the first move has settled.

## In short

- The minute of a scheduled release is known months ahead. The number is not, and that is what makes the minute different.
- Market makers tend to pull or widen their quotes before it, so the book under the price thins out.
- A stop is a trigger, not a price: in a thin minute its market order fills at whatever is left.
- Three choices: be flat, trade smaller, or wait for the first move to settle. Choose before the day, not in the minute.
- Most US releases are set in Eastern time; check the time in your own zone.

## What a scheduled release is

A scheduled release is a figure published at a time set long in advance: US consumer prices, the monthly jobs report, the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions. Statistics agencies and central banks publish their calendars months ahead, so the minute is known. The number is not, and that is what makes the minute different.

Crypto trades around the clock, so a release lands in an open market, often after a quiet hour. Most US releases are set in Eastern time: one at 8:30 in New York is 12:30 UTC in summer and 13:30 UTC in winter.

## Why the book thins before the minute

Market makers keep prices on both sides of the book and earn the spread between them. Their main danger is trading with someone who knows something they do not. In the seconds after a release, anyone fast enough to read the number knows more than a quote left on the book, so many market makers pull their quotes or widen them before the minute arrives.

The result is a thinner book: fewer resting orders near the price, a wider spread, and a market order that has to walk further to fill. Research on how markets are built describes this trade-off in detail: liquidity comes from people who can step away, and they step away when the risk of being picked off rises.

## What happens to stops in that minute

A stop is a trigger, not a guaranteed price. When the mark price crosses it, a market order goes to whatever book is left. On Hyperliquid a market stop accepts a fill up to 10% past its trigger; a stop limit caps the price and may not fill at all. [How TP/SL orders work](https://buildtrade.app/guides/take-profit-and-stop-loss-on-hyperliquid/) covers both.

In a calm hour the gap between trigger and fill tends to be small. In the release minute the same stop can fill well past its price. In the picture, the stop at 97.50 fires during one long candle and fills at 96.40, 1.10 below its trigger.

## The choices around a release

**Be flat.** Close, or do not open, before the minute. No stop can fill past its price on a position you do not hold. The cost is missing whatever move comes.

**Trade smaller.** Keep the position, at a size where a fill well past the stop is still a loss you accept. The worked example below shows how the gap scales with size.

**Wait.** Let the first minutes pass. Spreads tend to come back in once the number is out, and you trade a market that has seen it, at whatever price it has moved to.

None of these is right for everyone. What matters is choosing before the day, with the calendar open, rather than in the minute itself.

## One gap, three sizes

_Example numbers._

A long at 100.00 with a market stop at 97.50. In the release minute the stop fires and fills at 96.40, 1.10 past its trigger. The gap is the same at every size; what it costs is not.

- Entry · stop: 100.00 · 97.50
- Fill in the release minute: 96.40

| Size, in units | Planned loss | Loss at the fill | Beyond the plan |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| 40 | −$100 | −$144 | −$44 |
| 20 | −$50 | −$72 | −$22 |
| 10 | −$25 | −$36 | −$11 |

Trading smaller does not close the gap; it shrinks what the gap costs. At 10 units the same minute costs $11 beyond the plan instead of $44.

## Mistakes that cost traders money

- **Assuming the stop fills at its price.** In a thin minute a market stop fills at whatever is left on the book. Plan the loss at a worse fill, not at the trigger.
- **Tightening the stop to fit a bigger size.** A tight stop is the one most likely to be reached in a fast minute, and the bigger size makes the gap cost more.
- **Reading the release time in the wrong zone.** Most US releases are set in Eastern time, and their UTC time moves by an hour twice a year. Check the time in your own zone.
- **Trading the first print.** The first prices after a release are made on a thin book and can reverse within seconds.
- **Treating the release as a direction.** Nobody knows the number in advance. A release is a time when price can move far either way, not a hint which way.

## Try it in BuildTrade™

Open Markets › Upcoming. It lists US releases and Fed decisions with a countdown, in your time zone, and filters them by impact; the bell on each row sets a reminder ahead of time. The News guardrail switch on the same tab is on unless you turn it off: it makes the order ticket refuse orders for 15 minutes either side of a high-impact release, on paper and live.

Open the app: https://trade.buildtrade.app/register

## Sources

- Trading and Exchanges: Market Microstructure for Practitioners, Larry Harris (2003).
- [Take profit and stop loss orders (TP/SL)](https://hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyperliquid-docs/trading/take-profit-and-stop-loss-orders-tp-sl), Hyperliquid Docs.

BuildTrade™ is independent of, and not endorsed by, Hyperliquid or the authors and publishers of the books listed.

Web page: https://buildtrade.app/guides/trading-around-economic-releases/